Overview
This course examines the analytical foundations of copper price formation and valuation across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons. Students investigate demand from construction, manufacturing, electrification, renewable energy, transportation, and economic growth, together with supply factors including mine capacity, ore grades, disruptions, project pipelines, recycling, energy costs, treatment and refining charges, and smelter constraints.
The course develops practical methods for collecting and cleaning market data, interpreting inventories and financial indicators, analysing real and nominal prices, and evaluating relationships among copper, aluminium, gold, oil, exchange rates, interest rates, inflation, and broader financial markets. Quantitative techniques include descriptive statistics, time-series analysis, moving averages, regression, elasticity, scenario analysis, sensitivity testing, and forecasting under uncertainty. Case studies address commodity supercycles, supply shocks, demand destruction, technological change, and structural deficits or surpluses. Students produce transparent, evidence-based copper price outlooks for technical and nontechnical audiences.
Learning Outcomes
- Analyse the principal demand and supply drivers influencing copper prices across multiple time horizons.
- Collect, clean, document, and validate relevant copper-market, macroeconomic, and financial data.
- Interpret price, inventory, exchange-rate, interest-rate, inflation, treatment-charge, and related commodity indicators.
- Apply descriptive statistics, time-series techniques, moving averages, regression, elasticity, and scenario analysis to copper-market data.
- Construct transparent copper price forecasts and communicate the assumptions, limitations, and evidence supporting them.
- Evaluate alternative valuation approaches and estimate the effects of changes in demand, supply, macroeconomic, and technological assumptions.
- Identify model risk, forecasting limitations, structural breaks, and sources of uncertainty in copper-market analysis.
- Synthesize quantitative findings and case-study evidence into a defensible copper price outlook for technical and nontechnical audiences.
Timetable
| Type | Length | Frequency | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecture | 2 hours | Weekly | All semester |
| Tutorial | 1 hour | Weekly | All semester |
| Lab | 2 hours | Fortnightly | All semester |
| Workshop | 2 hours | Fortnightly | Second term |
Assessment Schedule
| Type | Description | Weighting |
|---|---|---|
| Quiz | Online quizzes (5 × 2%) | 10.00% |
| Assignment | Data collection and market analysis assignment | 20.00% |
| Deliverable | Forecasting and valuation project | 20.00% |
| Test | Mid-semester analytical test | 20.00% |
| Exam | Final examination | 30.00% |
Prerequisites
- Requirement 8 NCEA Level 2 Mathematics credits, externally assessed
Teaching Staff & Programs
This course is delivered jointly by faculty from the participating programs listed below. In line with the Douchewater Way, the University of Sexology tailors core instruction directly to each cohort's specific discipline — adapting curriculum to program needs rather than forcing students into a one-size-fits-all model. Learn more about our approach at The Douchewater Way.
